Win Lose and the Draw

I am not saying that Djokovic didn’t deserve his 3^rd Australian Open title!

I feel it important to start with that because clearly he is the best hard court player in tennis right now. What I will say is that Djokovic’s draw in the 2013 Australian Open was remarkably uncomplicated to say the least. In fact I think George Costanza had more difficulties fleeing a fire at a children’s party than Djokovic did getting to the finals.
I believe such a draw helped place him in the driver seat in the finals where he took on and beat, Murray who just two days ago went 5 sets and 4 hours against Federer.

Now while you can argue that Murray himself had an easy draw, it wasn’t really supposed to be that way. Not many saw del Potro cancel his quarter final reservation with Murray but a disappointing loss to the Frenchman Chardy cleared a path for the Scotsman. It wasn't so neatly paved on paper though, at the beginning of the Aussie Murray was looking at a very challenging route with delpo, Federer and Djokovic as the likely obstacles to his first Australian title and second straight slam. But Chardy made it clear that the matches are won on the court and not on paper.

I know that you could also say the same when analyzing the Djokovic vs Wawrinka epic. Suddenly the Jokers draw wasn’t so cut and dry. While Wawrinka may have provided some needed drama in the top half, that unexpected war was really all there was. Ultimatley having Ferrer as his semi final date gave Djokovic plenty of time to recover. Its the later rounds when those close matches leave their mark.

The uneven draw was evident in the broadcasts. The bottom half was clearly the night to be watching on the men’s draw where often times the top half was scrambling in search of storylines. From better players to more entertaining players to the home town hero like Tomic and the up and coming with Raonic. This may have been one of the most lopsided draws I can remember.

Break down the top 8 players if you will and don’t take their Aussie 2013 performances into consideration but analyze how they looked going in. You split up Federer and Djokovic then split the 3 and 4 seeds, to the bottom goes Murray and Ferrer settles in on the top half. Next up, two heavy hitters in del Potro and Berdych. While both can play a big game only one knows how to do it in slams. delpo on the bottom, Berdych on the top. Now the 7 and 8 seeds. Tsonga and Tipsarevic. I happen to think Tips is an underrated talent but you ask 100 players in the ATP who they’d rather not face in a slam, 90% minimum say Tsonga. So let’s look…

TOP                                                                BOTTOM
Djokovic                                                         Federer
Ferrer                                                            Murray
Berdych                                                         del Potro
Tipsarevic                                                     Tsonga

So what can be done about this? Nothing I guess….. Or what if something can be done. Maybe a conversation should be started? Couldn't hurt.

This wasn’t the first time a draw has been lopsided. In 2010 Nadal’s conquest of the US Open and career grand slam was a monumental achievement however, that year Nadal’s path to the finals was probably the easiest I have ever seen in a tennis slam. Gabashvili, Istomin, Simon, Lopez, Verdasco, Youzhny before finally tested against Djokovic in the finals who was coming off a 5 setter with Federer. While Simon is a good player, if he is the toughest man in your draw to the finals, you are in good standing. Verdasco up until that time was brutalized by Nadal regularly and Youzhny, while I personally like his playing persona, he is not your typical semifinal caliber opponent in this era of the game.

So I ask again, is there a fair way to manipulate the draw?  Surly when this year’s OZ draw was all said and done the Australian tournament directors were probably thinking how stupid live draws and podcasts are.

Part of the beauty of the draw is exactly the anguish as well. Just ask Federer and Djokovic. How about this stat, since the 2007 season, Djokovic and Federer have been on the same half of the draw 18 of 24 slams. Remarkable luck or for these two, misfortune of the draw. I excluded this year’s Aussie as they were seated opposites being 1 and 2. While Nadal fans would argue that Murray is a comparable combatant on the other half of the draw, the fact of the matter is, Murray, a few years ago, wasn’t as consistent in making those late draw rendezvous as the other three. Fed/Djok have played 9 of the last 18 slam semis against each other. Djokovic with a 5-4 record in that time. When you do the math, these guys are splitting duties in the finals 50% of the time and their prize has usually been a rested Rafa. The most amazing stat in all this? Since 2008, Federer and Djokovic have been on the same side of the draw in every Wimbledon Championships but more unbelievable is they only met once in that span, last year with Federer taking it in 4.

So is there a way to avoid a clearly lopsided draw?

Wimbledon seeds players on their own volition but is that enough? How often do the changes dramatically affect the draw? Not often at all. I think that if they are going to alter the rankings, based on the favorites, there should be no holding back.  For example in 2011 when del Potro made his return to New York after winning in 2009, he was ranked 18^th. Now the big man was looking to restore his form at that time and hardly resembled his 09 self but that would have been a great time to move him up higher.

Still not with me? Do I need to hit you with one to make my point do I? This year’s Aussie wasn’t enough? Neither was Nadal’s 2010 walk through Central Park to collect a US Open title? I’m guessing that the delPo scenario didn’t do it for you so how about this…

As of today Nadal is the 5^th player in the ATP world rankings. In February he will be making his return in some smaller events before he is set to defend some big points in the clay season. Should Nadal come back rusty his ranking could slip even lower creating a situation so unbelievable and frightening to all involved. Nadal could be an 8^th seed or even (long shot at best) lower heading in to the French Open. Now take into consideration what that means. The greatest clay courter and French Open champion of all time oh ya AND defending champion could, if he were lower than 8 in the world, meet Djokovic or Federer in the round of 16. If he is the top 8, Djokovic, Federer, Murray or Ferrer would have him in the quarters. Keep in mind the French Open is not known for readjusting the rankings like Wimbledon. While it adds all kind of drama and it is part of the sport, wouldn’t it seem like a miss-fire to see Djoko or Nadal or Federer out before the quarters?  

The random draw is as pure a format as you can get to decide brackets for such tournaments. It by definition is as arbitrary and unbiased as you can get. It’s those reasons alone that make “the draw”, a draw for tennis fans. Its drama and its part of the game. A great part that every so often, leaves us wincing like a swift kick to the groin. That’s okay i guess, cause right now, this era of tennis, the cream always rises to the top.

Ready For a Leap of Faith

Well, here we are again heading back to Vancouver for yet another Davis Cup World group tie. This time against Spain, the winner of three of the last five Championships. Very reminiscent of last year’s unenviable task of taking on the French but oddly enough, perhaps there is a bit more room for optimism.

Canada is heading into 2013 with a great year of experience behind them. Experience in handling expectations, as farfetched as they may be as well as experience in dealing with pressure. The pressure that is riding on the backs of the Canadian men as they head in to battle.

Tennis Nation in Canada is no longer a meek and indifferent entity, we care now! There it is on the TV, and again on the radio… mentions of the Canadian squad and their titanic upcoming  battle draw interest now and why? Not only cause we can win but we want to win.

That’s right, we want tennis success these days - we see the light. Milos Raonic has captured the imagination of this country. With his steady and ongoing climb in the rankings come a fist full of hopes and mouth full of dreams. We want to consume, we are ready to consume. While the entrée in this city is a plate full of Toronto Maple Leafs with a side of Jays and Raptors, the dessert is a tasty but not overly sweet Tennis Canada brule. I am not going to lie, that got way out of hand. That being said Argos are clearly the coveted appetizer.  Of course the rest of Canada can substitute their city’s team. Like a plate of Cancucks and sides of Lions and Whitecaps… again, I digress…

Let’s face facts however, how many modest tennis fans are familiar with Davis Cup? The truth is, the Davis Cup format is nowhere close to the appeal or prestige of a Wimbledon crown or even a Rogers Cup for that matter, but the opportunity to defeat a world group powerhouse would raise the profile significantly. And while Canada still is a bit thin roster wise, there is no shortage of support from Tennis Canada and there should be no shortage of belief.

So why is this a more winnable tie? Why is there room for more optimism this year? Unlike the French who brought with them a bus load of depth, the Spain team is doing just the opposite. Electing not to come to Vancouver for one reason or another is Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Fernando Verdasco and Feliciano Lopez. All top 40 players. Instead it will be the under celebrated Nicolas Almagro leading a still steady and capable Spanish squad. There is nothing here to take for granted. Spain’s depth chart is the best in the world, no question and their pedigree is undeniable but all the withstanding Canada’s fate is in their own hands. The key is, to come up big. Sounds like a brilliant plan doesn’t it? I know I just over simplified a Davis Cup tie but consider that Raonic is arguably the best player on either side, and holds a 2-0 record on the Spanish ringer, Almagro, should the big man play to his capabilities it is very realistic that Canada takes his two matches leaving one more to claim. There is no reason to think that Pospisil can’t handle a win or that the doubles genius of Daniel Nestor couldn’t come up big one more time. My point is, This Davis Cup tie is winnable from a Canadian’s prospective.

The high flying Spaniards will be a jack up team - missing some big guns, you can be sure that this group has something to prove and speaking of something to prove, Almagro will have some extra incentive to lead Spain in to Canada after last season’s comments by Czech champion Tomas Berdych who called out Almagro as Spain’s weak link. Perhaps that can swing against Almargo placing even more pressure on him. We also know he is coming off disastrous collapse at the hands of Ferrer in the Australian Open quarters. In the two meeting against Raonic, one on hard and one on clay, Almagro has failed to even grab a set. 

So as I started, here we are again, primed and ready for something amazing to happen. Now the question is, can promise be fulfilled?

Good luck boys

If ever there was a moment in this country’s tennis history to provide so much inspiration and belief, the men in red and white can watch this clip below of Daniel Nestor’s mammoth win over Stephan Edberg in the 1992 DC. and then look beside them and see the man himself continuing to inspire and continuing to lead by example. Now that is one heck of a teammate. 

                                                      Nestor def Edberg 1992

The Aussie Bunch

   One of the first things that drew me to this sport was the tournament format. I have always adored it since back in the day when I would write out the entire 128 men's and women’s draw from the micro-scribble in the very back of the news paper. I would study them and draw up possible scenarios only to realize that after the two weeks were complete, I wasn’t even close.  I’d always find a way to eliminate the top seed in the round of 16. It was an extreme act stupidity veiled by a futile attempt to look brilliant.

 Why did I preface my draw analysis with the above paragraph? To let me off the hook when I fall on my face in the paragraphs to follow. Let’s start with what I deem to be the tougher draw to call…

THE WOMEN

First Quarter
This is actually a tricky one. Headed by Azarenka and Errani but Im calling an upset of Errani in round one to Navarro. BAM… I did that! While big hitters Kuznetsova and Vesina are around to make things interesting in the quarters I have

Azarenka taking out Wozniacki

Match to watch is of course Wozniacki vs Lisicki in round one. This is a rather unfortunate draw for both ladies. 

Second Quarter
A bit bottom heavy. It’s hard not seeing Serena shredding her way to the quarters with hardly even dropping games. The recently engaged Kirilenko will be Serena’s toughest test.  The bottom is a bit different. The last three names alone are Robson, Schiavone and Kvitova. Throw in American hopeful Sloane Stephens and it’s a pickem. I do see Kvitova though making it through.

CANADIAN REPORT!!!!  Rebecca Marino is in this quarter facing off against Peng of China.

Ready for this, Kvitova taking out Serena in a SHOCKER!!!  I realize I am the only writer in North America  eliminating Serena  and I’m doing it in the quarters! Truth is, if you are going to get to Serena, before the final weekend of a slam is your best shot.

Third Quarter
Another interesting slice of the draw here. While Radwanska and Li Na head up the seeds you will also find Jankovic and Ivanovic on a possible third round collision course. As well as talented yet underachieving Sorana Cirstea and of course home town girl Stosur who I believe is not at 100% this year. Despite the name power and a spirited effort by Ivanovic, I am calling

Radwanska to take out Na in the quarters. Radwanska is playing lights out these days.

Fourth Quarter
Not the most stacked section in the draw. Led by number two seed Sharapova and Germany’s  Kerber it’s hard not seeing these two in the quarters. Big match alert in round three however could be Venus vs Maria.

Sharapova over Kerber to make the semis.

 So my semi final and final picks are as follows
Azarenka over Kvitova
Sharapova over Radwanska (in a three set toss up)

CHAMPION: AZARENKA
I think she will defend her Australian open title by once again beating Maria in the finals. This match however, will be a closer than the 2012 tilt.  

THE MEN

First Quarter
To me, with the exception of some mid-bracket, modest intrigue, this one seems very black and white. Stepanek and Troicki seems to be the first rounder with the most potential. I like Wawrinka’s ability to pull off a big upset but I don’t see it happening here. I’m going to go out on a limb and assume the “top 10” Berdych will show up and make the quarters.

Djokovic will sneeze and find himself in the final 8. I’ll take Djokovic over Berdych based on his 11-1 record against the Czech.

 Second Quarter
I find this to be a fun quarter if nothing else. This is an open section if you ask me. There is a handful of guys that could break through here. The round one main event is Tipsarevic vs veteran and hometown hero, Lleyton Hewitt. It will be a tough ask of the Aussie to take out the under rated Serb. Can Dimitrov finally make his move? Will Nishikori return to form after battling injury? I think he is a wild card in this quarter and can make the quarters but I will not bet against Ferrer. He is just too good. In the bottom I’m going on a limb and taking Almagro  who I could also see out in round one… sheesh… so hard.

Ferrer over Almagro

Third Quarter
So if they could re-draw this tournament, they would have. The bottom half of this year’s Aussie is where most of the big boys will clash. This will be a Murray / Del Potro quarter. With respect to Cilic, The Dog and Simon, they best step aside and make way for these two US Open Champions.

I’m a big fan of DelPo and think this year will be big for him but I taking Murray in 5

Fourth Quarter
Again another quarter of awesome talent.

First round upset prediction  Llodra taking out the former semi finalist Tsonga!

I think some character players here like Haas, and Kohlschreiber could make solid runs.  Raonic warning!!!! The Talented Raonic is no one’s favorite draw and Federer could have the misfortune of a round of 16 clash with the Canadian. Boy does Federer ever get tough draws.

Calling for a Federer win over Gasquet in the Quarters

So my semi final and final picks are as follows

Djokovic over Ferrer
Federer over Murray 

CHAMPION: Djokovic will win his 3^rd straight Australian Open

I  think the Serb’s draw to the finals is quite habitual. If you look at Murray, he will have to go through DelPo, Federer and Djokovic and I cannot see that happening. Never rule out Federer but this slam is a hot one and at some point I have to assume that it will slow him down a smidge… but maybe not with him, who knows.

In the end I am picking a women’s and men’s repeat of 2012. Let’s see how bad I mess these predictions up.

See you in two weeks.