The Aussie Bunch

   One of the first things that drew me to this sport was the tournament format. I have always adored it since back in the day when I would write out the entire 128 men's and women’s draw from the micro-scribble in the very back of the news paper. I would study them and draw up possible scenarios only to realize that after the two weeks were complete, I wasn’t even close.  I’d always find a way to eliminate the top seed in the round of 16. It was an extreme act stupidity veiled by a futile attempt to look brilliant.

 Why did I preface my draw analysis with the above paragraph? To let me off the hook when I fall on my face in the paragraphs to follow. Let’s start with what I deem to be the tougher draw to call…

THE WOMEN

First Quarter
This is actually a tricky one. Headed by Azarenka and Errani but Im calling an upset of Errani in round one to Navarro. BAM… I did that! While big hitters Kuznetsova and Vesina are around to make things interesting in the quarters I have

Azarenka taking out Wozniacki

Match to watch is of course Wozniacki vs Lisicki in round one. This is a rather unfortunate draw for both ladies. 

Second Quarter
A bit bottom heavy. It’s hard not seeing Serena shredding her way to the quarters with hardly even dropping games. The recently engaged Kirilenko will be Serena’s toughest test.  The bottom is a bit different. The last three names alone are Robson, Schiavone and Kvitova. Throw in American hopeful Sloane Stephens and it’s a pickem. I do see Kvitova though making it through.

CANADIAN REPORT!!!!  Rebecca Marino is in this quarter facing off against Peng of China.

Ready for this, Kvitova taking out Serena in a SHOCKER!!!  I realize I am the only writer in North America  eliminating Serena  and I’m doing it in the quarters! Truth is, if you are going to get to Serena, before the final weekend of a slam is your best shot.

Third Quarter
Another interesting slice of the draw here. While Radwanska and Li Na head up the seeds you will also find Jankovic and Ivanovic on a possible third round collision course. As well as talented yet underachieving Sorana Cirstea and of course home town girl Stosur who I believe is not at 100% this year. Despite the name power and a spirited effort by Ivanovic, I am calling

Radwanska to take out Na in the quarters. Radwanska is playing lights out these days.

Fourth Quarter
Not the most stacked section in the draw. Led by number two seed Sharapova and Germany’s  Kerber it’s hard not seeing these two in the quarters. Big match alert in round three however could be Venus vs Maria.

Sharapova over Kerber to make the semis.

 So my semi final and final picks are as follows
Azarenka over Kvitova
Sharapova over Radwanska (in a three set toss up)

CHAMPION: AZARENKA
I think she will defend her Australian open title by once again beating Maria in the finals. This match however, will be a closer than the 2012 tilt.  

THE MEN

First Quarter
To me, with the exception of some mid-bracket, modest intrigue, this one seems very black and white. Stepanek and Troicki seems to be the first rounder with the most potential. I like Wawrinka’s ability to pull off a big upset but I don’t see it happening here. I’m going to go out on a limb and assume the “top 10” Berdych will show up and make the quarters.

Djokovic will sneeze and find himself in the final 8. I’ll take Djokovic over Berdych based on his 11-1 record against the Czech.

 Second Quarter
I find this to be a fun quarter if nothing else. This is an open section if you ask me. There is a handful of guys that could break through here. The round one main event is Tipsarevic vs veteran and hometown hero, Lleyton Hewitt. It will be a tough ask of the Aussie to take out the under rated Serb. Can Dimitrov finally make his move? Will Nishikori return to form after battling injury? I think he is a wild card in this quarter and can make the quarters but I will not bet against Ferrer. He is just too good. In the bottom I’m going on a limb and taking Almagro  who I could also see out in round one… sheesh… so hard.

Ferrer over Almagro

Third Quarter
So if they could re-draw this tournament, they would have. The bottom half of this year’s Aussie is where most of the big boys will clash. This will be a Murray / Del Potro quarter. With respect to Cilic, The Dog and Simon, they best step aside and make way for these two US Open Champions.

I’m a big fan of DelPo and think this year will be big for him but I taking Murray in 5

Fourth Quarter
Again another quarter of awesome talent.

First round upset prediction  Llodra taking out the former semi finalist Tsonga!

I think some character players here like Haas, and Kohlschreiber could make solid runs.  Raonic warning!!!! The Talented Raonic is no one’s favorite draw and Federer could have the misfortune of a round of 16 clash with the Canadian. Boy does Federer ever get tough draws.

Calling for a Federer win over Gasquet in the Quarters

So my semi final and final picks are as follows

Djokovic over Ferrer
Federer over Murray 

CHAMPION: Djokovic will win his 3^rd straight Australian Open

I  think the Serb’s draw to the finals is quite habitual. If you look at Murray, he will have to go through DelPo, Federer and Djokovic and I cannot see that happening. Never rule out Federer but this slam is a hot one and at some point I have to assume that it will slow him down a smidge… but maybe not with him, who knows.

In the end I am picking a women’s and men’s repeat of 2012. Let’s see how bad I mess these predictions up.

See you in two weeks.