Win Lose and the Draw

I am not saying that Djokovic didn’t deserve his 3^rd Australian Open title!

I feel it important to start with that because clearly he is the best hard court player in tennis right now. What I will say is that Djokovic’s draw in the 2013 Australian Open was remarkably uncomplicated to say the least. In fact I think George Costanza had more difficulties fleeing a fire at a children’s party than Djokovic did getting to the finals.
I believe such a draw helped place him in the driver seat in the finals where he took on and beat, Murray who just two days ago went 5 sets and 4 hours against Federer.

Now while you can argue that Murray himself had an easy draw, it wasn’t really supposed to be that way. Not many saw del Potro cancel his quarter final reservation with Murray but a disappointing loss to the Frenchman Chardy cleared a path for the Scotsman. It wasn't so neatly paved on paper though, at the beginning of the Aussie Murray was looking at a very challenging route with delpo, Federer and Djokovic as the likely obstacles to his first Australian title and second straight slam. But Chardy made it clear that the matches are won on the court and not on paper.

I know that you could also say the same when analyzing the Djokovic vs Wawrinka epic. Suddenly the Jokers draw wasn’t so cut and dry. While Wawrinka may have provided some needed drama in the top half, that unexpected war was really all there was. Ultimatley having Ferrer as his semi final date gave Djokovic plenty of time to recover. Its the later rounds when those close matches leave their mark.

The uneven draw was evident in the broadcasts. The bottom half was clearly the night to be watching on the men’s draw where often times the top half was scrambling in search of storylines. From better players to more entertaining players to the home town hero like Tomic and the up and coming with Raonic. This may have been one of the most lopsided draws I can remember.

Break down the top 8 players if you will and don’t take their Aussie 2013 performances into consideration but analyze how they looked going in. You split up Federer and Djokovic then split the 3 and 4 seeds, to the bottom goes Murray and Ferrer settles in on the top half. Next up, two heavy hitters in del Potro and Berdych. While both can play a big game only one knows how to do it in slams. delpo on the bottom, Berdych on the top. Now the 7 and 8 seeds. Tsonga and Tipsarevic. I happen to think Tips is an underrated talent but you ask 100 players in the ATP who they’d rather not face in a slam, 90% minimum say Tsonga. So let’s look…

TOP                                                                BOTTOM
Djokovic                                                         Federer
Ferrer                                                            Murray
Berdych                                                         del Potro
Tipsarevic                                                     Tsonga

So what can be done about this? Nothing I guess….. Or what if something can be done. Maybe a conversation should be started? Couldn't hurt.

This wasn’t the first time a draw has been lopsided. In 2010 Nadal’s conquest of the US Open and career grand slam was a monumental achievement however, that year Nadal’s path to the finals was probably the easiest I have ever seen in a tennis slam. Gabashvili, Istomin, Simon, Lopez, Verdasco, Youzhny before finally tested against Djokovic in the finals who was coming off a 5 setter with Federer. While Simon is a good player, if he is the toughest man in your draw to the finals, you are in good standing. Verdasco up until that time was brutalized by Nadal regularly and Youzhny, while I personally like his playing persona, he is not your typical semifinal caliber opponent in this era of the game.

So I ask again, is there a fair way to manipulate the draw?  Surly when this year’s OZ draw was all said and done the Australian tournament directors were probably thinking how stupid live draws and podcasts are.

Part of the beauty of the draw is exactly the anguish as well. Just ask Federer and Djokovic. How about this stat, since the 2007 season, Djokovic and Federer have been on the same half of the draw 18 of 24 slams. Remarkable luck or for these two, misfortune of the draw. I excluded this year’s Aussie as they were seated opposites being 1 and 2. While Nadal fans would argue that Murray is a comparable combatant on the other half of the draw, the fact of the matter is, Murray, a few years ago, wasn’t as consistent in making those late draw rendezvous as the other three. Fed/Djok have played 9 of the last 18 slam semis against each other. Djokovic with a 5-4 record in that time. When you do the math, these guys are splitting duties in the finals 50% of the time and their prize has usually been a rested Rafa. The most amazing stat in all this? Since 2008, Federer and Djokovic have been on the same side of the draw in every Wimbledon Championships but more unbelievable is they only met once in that span, last year with Federer taking it in 4.

So is there a way to avoid a clearly lopsided draw?

Wimbledon seeds players on their own volition but is that enough? How often do the changes dramatically affect the draw? Not often at all. I think that if they are going to alter the rankings, based on the favorites, there should be no holding back.  For example in 2011 when del Potro made his return to New York after winning in 2009, he was ranked 18^th. Now the big man was looking to restore his form at that time and hardly resembled his 09 self but that would have been a great time to move him up higher.

Still not with me? Do I need to hit you with one to make my point do I? This year’s Aussie wasn’t enough? Neither was Nadal’s 2010 walk through Central Park to collect a US Open title? I’m guessing that the delPo scenario didn’t do it for you so how about this…

As of today Nadal is the 5^th player in the ATP world rankings. In February he will be making his return in some smaller events before he is set to defend some big points in the clay season. Should Nadal come back rusty his ranking could slip even lower creating a situation so unbelievable and frightening to all involved. Nadal could be an 8^th seed or even (long shot at best) lower heading in to the French Open. Now take into consideration what that means. The greatest clay courter and French Open champion of all time oh ya AND defending champion could, if he were lower than 8 in the world, meet Djokovic or Federer in the round of 16. If he is the top 8, Djokovic, Federer, Murray or Ferrer would have him in the quarters. Keep in mind the French Open is not known for readjusting the rankings like Wimbledon. While it adds all kind of drama and it is part of the sport, wouldn’t it seem like a miss-fire to see Djoko or Nadal or Federer out before the quarters?  

The random draw is as pure a format as you can get to decide brackets for such tournaments. It by definition is as arbitrary and unbiased as you can get. It’s those reasons alone that make “the draw”, a draw for tennis fans. Its drama and its part of the game. A great part that every so often, leaves us wincing like a swift kick to the groin. That’s okay i guess, cause right now, this era of tennis, the cream always rises to the top.